DNV GL Energy Transition Outlook 2020

DNV GL Energy Transition Outlook 2020

COVID-19 is permanently changing the global energy outlook, but not enough to meet the Paris climate goals.

According to DNV GL’s Energy Transition Outlook published on September 9, 2020, the behavioral and economic consequences of COVID-19 will permanently reduce global energy demand.

2020 is a year of unprecedented changes and uncertainties. While some effects of COVID-19 are short-lived, others will dramatically change the way we live, work, travel and do business well into the future. This, in turn, will have enormous consequences for the energy transition. How has the pandemic affected global energy demand? Have we passed peak emissions yet? How will the energy mix change until 2050?

Compared to the pre-pandemic forecast, energy demand will be reduced by 6-8% each year until 2050. COVID-19 has led to major behavioural changes that are important for energy consumption, as evidenced by the reduction in long-distance traffic and the increase in the number of home offices. These are both responsible for the peak for energy and oil demand in 2019. DNV GL predicts that these trends will have a lasting social impact with a major impact on the energy demand of transport and commercial buildings.

COVID-19’s CO2 emissions will be 8 percent lower this year than in 2019. But it’s not going to be this one year. The Energy Transition Outlook, an independent study of the energy future until 2050, indicates that the decline in emissions will not be offset by subsequent increases. The year 2019, according to the report, will go into the books as the year with the highest emissions of CO2.

On 9 September, DNV GL published the Energy Transition Outlook. This is a detailed, broad-based, independent forecast of the energy future until 2050. The Energy Transition Outlook was downloaded more than 100,000 times last year.

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